Trump Jr.-advised prediction markets invite bets on president’s demise

Trump Jr.-advised prediction markets invite bets on president’s demise

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Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket opened betting markets on President Donald Trump being “out as president” as social media platforms erupted over the long weekend with rumors that he had died. The competing platforms, which both list Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser, launched their markets after the typically omnipresent Trump vanished from public view, with press photographers reduced to capturing grainy, distant shots that call to mind Bigfoot sightings. Recent appearances had shown Trump with swollen ankles and bruised hands, and online sleuths seized on holiday road closures around Walter Reed Medical Center and recent press appearances by Vice President Vance stating his readiness to assume the presidency as further evidence of Trump’s demise.

Before these direct bets, there had been a spike in activity in existing markets that would have served as proxy bets for Trump’s death. A Polymarket bet on “First leader out of power in 2025?” showed Trump’s odds climbing from around 5% prior to the weekend to as high as 8.6%. On Kalshi, “JD Vance out as Vice President of the United States this year?” (a market that would resolve to “yes” if Vance assumed the presidency) spiked from around 6% to above 15% — its highest since the market’s July creation. Other bets on Trump’s resignation or removal via the 25th Amendment also spiked.

By the weekend, both prediction markets had embraced the speculation head-on, introducing explicit bets on whether Trump would be “out as President” by the end of the year.

As of writing, the new markets have attracted $1.5 million in combined wagers, with Kalshi collecting fees on each trade. (Polymarket currently relies on venture capital funding and does not yet collect fees, though fees are likely coming.¹) The choice to feature such markets is especially striking given that both platforms count Donald Trump Jr. among their advisers [I91]. A Kalshi spokesperson said in a statement that Trump Jr. “does not have any involvement whatsoever with market operations, including selection and listing”. Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Trump Jr.’s involvement.

Though the question of the market is the same, the rules of the bet differ when it comes to death-related outcomes — an especially sensitive area for prediction markets given historical concerns about “assassination markets” that could incentivize violence against public figures. The CFTC, the primary regulator for such platforms, has long prohibited listing markets that could encourage assassination or other crimes.

Kalshi is playing it safer, incorporating a clause in which Trump’s death will not resolve the market to “yes”, but rather result in bettors being paid out at the last traded price.^a Surveying other similar bets on the platform involving other public figures, some (such as “Lisa Cook Out as Fed Governor this year?”) incorporate similar death-related carve-outs; others (such as “Powell out as [Fed] Chair?”) do not. Polymarket includes no such caveat, and so Trump’s death would satisfy the “yes” criterion.

Such markets trend alarmingly close to assassination markets, which are explicitly prohibited by CFTC regulations against contracts referencing “terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or an activity that is unlawful under any State or Federal law”.² (Outside the US, some financial and gambling regulators impose similar prohibitions, and criminal law in most jurisdictions likewise prohibits such markets under incitement, solicitation, and conspiracy statutes.)

Both platforms appear increasingly emboldened to test these boundaries, protected by their deep political connections to the US administration. Beyond Donald Trump Jr.’s advisory roles at both companies, Polymarket boasts former CFTC Chairman J. Christopher Giancarlo on its board.¹ Trump’s nominee for the future CFTC Chair is current Kalshi shareholder and board member Brian Quintenz. In August, emails obtained via FOIA request sparked calls for a CFTC investigation into Quintenz over concerns that he may have crossed ethical or legal lines by seeking information into Kalshi competitors and potentially influencing agency decisionmaking even prior to his confirmation [I90]. Quintenz’s apparent comfort in involving himself in CFTC matters that present conflicts of interest, before even taking office, exemplifies the broader regulatory breakdown under Trump.

After a district court judge sided with Kalshi in September 2024 in a dispute over whether election-related markets qualified as “gaming”, the CFTC dropped its appeal of the question in May 2025. Since then, both platforms have grown increasingly aggressive in offering markets that appear to violate CFTC prohibitions. Polymarket, though based in the US, (dubiously [I70]) claims not to serve US customers, giving it some additional latitude in its offerings, though it plans to soon change this under Trump's relaxed regulatory environment.³

And Polymarket — typically the more defiant of the two — has a history of controversial markets that create troubling incentives. Earlier this year, I noted this issue when the platform began allowing speculators to bet on whether California wildfires would spread to a new part of the state [I73]. The platform also regularly offers markets on declarations of war, ceasefire adherence, and specific military operations, leading one commenter to write, “It feels wrong that Polymarket has an entire Hezbollah betting section that makes a war look like a football game to bet on” [I68]. Both Polymarket and Kalshi maintain entire sections dedicated to sports betting, despite gaming prohibitions.

Polymarket has long defended its controversial markets as providing “answers” for those directly impacted by events “in ways TV news and Twitter could not”, emphasizing that it takes no fees to deflect accusations of profiting from tragedy. Both platforms frame their betting markets as ways to quantify public predictions about future events, and Polymarket has even described itself as the future of news. But the $1.5 million wagered on Trump’s potential demise suggests these markets go beyond measuring public sentiment to actively amplifying and, in Kalshi’s case, profiting from speculation about presidential mortality. That they now feel confident enough to allow such betting — creating financial incentives around the death of the same president whose deregulatory agenda enabled their rise — represents a dark irony of Trump’s dismantling of regulatory oversight.